Manchester City's Legendary Start

The English Premier League is one of the most wide open professional sports championships in the World.  If you do just a little bit of fantasy soccer analysis, you will quickly see how competitive this league has consistently been. The main reason for this league being so competitive is the relegation rule that the most top European Soccer leagues follow. Specifically for the Premier League, the clubs that finish the bottom three positions are forced to be relegated to the second division in England called the English League Championship.  Consequently, due to three clubs being relegated from the top to the second, the top three teams in the ELC are promoted to the Premier League and compete against the top teams in England so long as they don’t slip to the bottom three. This is a self-sustaining system to ensure that the best and most competitive teams will be playing each other year in and year out.

But, in reality can a club that recently got promoted to play against billion dollar super clubs really compete for an entire season?  The answer is an outstanding YES. The answer immediately points to the 2015-2016 Premier League Champions, Leicester City.  The history of this club is a crazy one. They were founded 1884 and have been a mainstay in English soccer.  In 2008, the club was relegated all the way down to the third league in England called League 1.  A year later they got back to the English League Championship and then in 2014 returned to the Premier League after they won the second division championships.   So in an eight year span, the Wolves went from being in the worst division in England to being the best club in England as they hoisted the Premier League trophy at the end of 2016.  There have been nearly fifty team who have competed in the Premier League since its inception in the early 1990s.  And none of the fifty teams to have competed in the Premier League, nor any of the other divisions in England, have done what Manchester City have been able to accomplish to start this season.

As it stand right now, the club has won an unbelievable sixteen straight matches and sit eleven points clear of their arch rivals Manchester United. This club has rattled off sixteen straight victories after only drawing their first match of the season.  This is unprecedented in European Soccer when teams are playing in Champions League during the week and league matches on the weekend.  And this club by no means faltered in Champion League as they are currently slated to match up against Basel in the round of sixteen in the spring.  According to fantasy soccer research, their dominance has come from their awe inspiring forty four goal difference.  They are tied for the lead in the fewest goals allowed, with twelve, and are head and shoulders above the rest of the league in goals scored with a staggering fifty six. The secret to their success: Pep Guardiola.  And if you scour the City’s roster you won’t find anyone by that name. The reason is that is the legendary manager who currently possess three of the five longest winning streaks per European Soccer Leagues.  He owns the longest winning streaks in the following leagues: Premier League (England), La Liga (Spain), and Bundesliga 1 (Germany).  If they are able to continue this win streak through Christmas and during the Winter Transfer Window we may see history made with the best record ever in the Premier League and possibly in all of Europe.

How Shifts Have Changed the Game

Baseball in today’s age is wildly different than how baseball has been played for a majority of it’s history.  For it being America’s pastime, it certainly has not passed time with all of the changes it has made to the way it has been played. From replay reviews, to time clock for in between hitters and innings, to now this crazy thing that defenses are doing called "The shift".

So what is the shift and why do teams do it so much now in today’s MLB?  A great deal of it has to do with what teams are extrapolating from their fantasy baseball analysis of how the game is being played. So a shift is when a team changes the normal alignment, where you have two position players on each side of the field, to a new and augmented alignment, where you can have three or even four players on side of the field.

So what is the reasoning?  With sabermetrics having impacted the way we study the game so much, coaches have a plethora of stats at their disposal that they use to try and predict the outcome of the game, an inning, an at-bat, and even a single pitch.  So when they go through the daily fantasy baseball research and see that a left-handed power hitter pulls the ball at nearly a sixty to seventy percent rate, they are going to shift based on the prediction to do it again. 

If you have the data that shows this is what a guy usually does, wouldn’t you use it to your advantage? Many of baseball purists absolutely hate the idea of shifts because they believe that it has ruined the basic game play of baseball in how it was supposed to be plaid. Others refute that and say that if you want to predict what is going to happen, and adjust your alignment accordingly. Whether we like the infusion of statistics into the game of baseball, it is here to say and will most likely be integrated more and more as clubs figure out the best ways to utilize all of this information that they are now being exposed to.  At the same time, the shift presents an excellent fantasy baseball opportunity for hitters to beat the shift my simply putting the ball where the players are not. If they are going to line up almost exclusively on the right side of the infield, as a hitter, you have to be willing to take the ball the other way and look for extra bases. It sounds simple in theory but then again, there is a reason that these guys do it for a living while we don’t.

Does the Bullpen Matter in DFS?

Everyone knows the key to winning a Draftkings fantasy baseball tournament or a FanDuel fantasy baseball tournament, you need to stack a few hitters against an exploitable pitching matchup. What this daily fantasy baseball strategy entails is focusing in on a pitcher who is in an unfavorable matchup against a hot hitting team in a hitter’s ballpark. All of this fantasy baseball analysis is centered around the starting pitcher (his pitches, his splits, his hot/cold streak, etc.) and rightfully so. This makes a great deal of sense considering the entire game is run through the two starting pitchers in the game but there may be a little more to it then you think.  The reason is the following.

When you stack a team against a starting pitcher you are hoping that pitcher is fully exploitable hoping that is start is short lived.  You expect your stack to be able to light up the starting pitcher and get on him early in the game. But the fact of the matter is, if this happens then the pitcher that you did all of your fantasy baseball research on is going to be subbed out within the first half of the game (five innings or less preferably) and then what? Every reason you picked those hitters for were based on the matchup with the starting pitcher, not whatever middle reliever that comes out of the bullpen. So are you realistically expected to do research on the bullpen pitchers as well just in case your plan goes just as you planned. Realistically, no.

There are a couple reasons why, but we are going to focus on two. Most of the time, bullpen pitchers have a limited pitching arsenal usually consisting of a fastball and an offspeed pitch or two. So, it’s not like these pitchers are going to be tricking your hitters by keeping them off balance because of their deep pitching arsenal. Secondly, if your hitters were the reason that the starting pitcher got subbed out in the first place then there's not much more research you need to do. When a player gets a couple of hits in the first half of the game, it doesn’t matter who's pitching to them because regardless the ball is going to look like a beach ball coming out of the pitcher’s hand.

So at the end of the day, spend your research time on the starting pitcher because that is where the money is really at.

How to Pick a Keeper?

One of the most difficult positions to effectively target in all of Daily Fantasy Sports is the Goalkeeper.  We’ll have to make some clarification here and specify that we are talking in terms of fantasy soccer.  For most lineup construction for fantasy soccer, it is quite easy to pick the attackmen you want to target.  Usually, the midfield/attack is loaded with star studded players like Gareth Bale, Sergio Aguero, and Gonzalo Higuain to name a few.  Then you turn to the midfield where that requires a bit more soccer analysis.  Of course there will be the affronted players such as Mesut Ozil and James Rodriguez but is that who you want.

After doing more soccer research, it is clear that these studs aren’t necessarily who you want. Granted the have increased salary price due to their increase probability to score but that is not everything you are looking for.  There’s crosses, corners, free kicks, and the whole defensive side of football that midfielders need to be able to execute if they have a decent fantasy floor (in terms the least amount of fantasy points a player is projected to have).  As for picking defenders, that is a crap shoot all in it's own.  Sure you can stack and put the cheapest defenders who could get a clean sheet or you could go after a guy like Sergio Ramos who is the cog in the defense but is known to bang home a header every now and then which greatly increases his fantasy value.

Now for keepers.  Do you punt or pay up for Manuel Neuer, when Bayern takes on FC Mainz?  To be honest, there is no right answer and more so depends on the rest of our lineup.  Most of the time, it is best to target a keeper with a sub-prime defense playing against an attacking offense. This greatly decreases your goalies’ opportunity to finish with a Clean Sheet but that’s not what you should be banking on as it is extreme difficult for those to come to fruition.  But what it does do is it gives your keeper the opportunity to make saves.  On DraftKings, saves are worth two points and penalty saves are worth five.  On the other hand, Fanduel gives out three points per save and another six for penalty saves.  By accumulating three or four saves, your keeper will already be in a great place to crush value. This fantasy soccer strategy is by no means foolproof but a great way to get the highest possible ceiling for your lineup.

How Power Plays truly change the game

Daily Fantasy Hockey experts have focused on the importance of the power play in the game of hockey and in fantasy sports.  The power play creates an advantage for the team on the power play to score and thus creates points for the game and the daily fantasy player or players.  The more power plays that a team has, or that a fantasy player scores during, the higher value that team or player ranks. This is largely due to the fact that power plays open up a plethora of scoring opportunities for the team on the attack.  Powerplays are a result of a player occurring penalty time, thus leaving their team with one less player than the other.  All of the dynamics change in hockey, rules included, when either team is on a powerplay because scoring is a premium in this advantageous situation.

In the National Hockey League, also known as the NHL, the focus on the power play is on both parts of the game, the offense and the defense.  The NHL teams look to build a team with players that can perform well on the power play and also to defend well against the power play.  The salary cap in sports limit the roster as some top players are taking up a big portion of the teams spending, and thus teams focus on adding depth through defensive specialists for the power play Kill, as most of their high cost players are on the power play for scoring opportunities.

In Daily Fantasy Hockey the focus is on scoring, but the power play also allows for a bonus point for scoring on “special teams.”  If the team defending the power play score a goal short handed they are also granted a bonus point for a special team goal and even an assist on that goal.  Thus, the NHL and Fantasy Hockey spend a great deal of time analyzing the power play squads of every team, and again, that is both offense and defense. But in building your daily fantasy hockey roster, you will want to consider picking players that play on the power play as it has statistical advantage of scoring and the daily fantasy bonus point for a special teams point.

Fastest Laps in NASCAR

Ever try to race your buddy on the road or see who can get where faster? Then you all know the main goal is to be the fastest and it’s the same in NASCAR. Everyone wants to be on top of the leaderboard whether it is practice, qualifying, or the race the goal is the same be the quickest. One of the most overlooked aspects of racing is a fastest lap. While teams have multiple practices every weekend they really don’t rely a ton on the fastest lap that could be misleading for fantasy players. Let us take a look on what a fast lap is and how to know the different meanings of them so you can be a better fantasy player as NASCAR fantasy expert picks.

One might think it is pretty simple to guess the fastest lap, but craziest thing about it in NASCAR is it could really be anyone in the field. It is very important to find those that will get the fastest laps though. In contests that count fastest laps, they count for .5 points each lap they run. While it might not seem like an awful lot those can add up real quick if you are able to find the driver that is able to get you double digit laps in that category. These could be the little extra points needed that is the difference in winning and losing.

First you need to look at the type of track they’re racing on that week. For example the bigger tracks like Daytona and Talladega usually have less total laps so the point upside for fastest laps really isn’t there, but the shorter tracks when they may have 500 laps have a huge upside for them. Once that is determined you need to understand most of the time (not all the time) the fastest car will be the leader. So if the pole sitter starts the race, all likelihood he will get a few fastest laps early. Clean air does wonders for those racecars, since the leader is the first one and there are no cars in front of him he will get all the clean air making his car faster and since everyone is behind him they get “dirty air” and will then be slower from it.

There is always a case where this isn’t true, but at the start you can usually bet on this to be the case. When this changes is when tires start to fall off and lose speed, this is when we may see the fastest laps come from anywhere in the field. Some cars fall off faster than others so we will see different speeds from every spot. How to find these are when practice comes into play, we can judge not only their single lap times, but the best is probably 10 lap average. Kevin Harvick for example has a history of being a bad qualifier, but is always fast during the race; this is because they set his car up for later in the runs.

Another thing that changes who runs faster times is who has the newer tires. Nearly every pit stop will need a tire change and new rubber means better grip for racing ultimately meaning faster times. So if a guy pits before everyone else with older tires, odds are once he gets out there he will be the fastest car on the track and that cycle changes every time someone comes in to the pits. Those three rules; track type, single lap and 10-lap average in practice, and who starts up front, is a great start to building a successful lineup taking in consideration with fastest laps.

Note: This is a guest blog post by Rusty Doyal from Daily Fantasy Insider.

How to play Fantasy Sports - MLS Fantasy soccer scoring explained

Although baseball, basketball, and football are still the kinds of real-life and fantasy sports in the U.S., some fantasy providers are offering tournaments and leagues based on other sports apart from the Big Three, such as golf, NASCAR, mixed martial arts. These also include fantasy soccer leagues, which are based on scores and stats from Major League Soccer, or MLS. So how about some MLS fantasy soccer tips for the beginners?

Join us as we help you, the daily fantasy soccer player, learn all the nuances of fantasy sports. For starters, we’ll be talking about the scoring system on DraftKings, which arguably has the best service among those who offer fantasy soccer. And be prepared, because it’s not just the basic stats that will be counted here; a lot of advanced ones are taken into account as well.

As far as scoring is concerned, it’s definitely more than the usual goals, assists, and goals allowed. A goal is worth 10 points, an assist six points, and a shot or a shot on goal one point. Crosses get you 0.75 points, fouls drawn and tackles won one point apiece, and passes intercepted by non-goalies one-half point. Defenders get three points each whenever the opposing team goes scoreless, thus resulting in a clean sheet. You can also get some points deducted from your total if your players get a yellow card (-1.5 points), red card (-3 points), or miss penalty kicks (-5 points).

Goalie stats include two points per save, five points per clean sheet, five points for a win, and three points for a penalty kick save.

Talking about the players you want on your team and how it relates to the scoring system above, we strongly suggest going for high-scoring forwards and midfielders. As defenders rarely score goals as compared to the other two non-goalie positions, you should be setting your sights on those whose teams allow few goals compared to other teams in MLS. The same applies for goalkeepers; the less points his team allows, the better. On the other hand, you want to avoid hotheads, dirty players, and chokers, as their actions (red/yellow cards, missed penalties, etc.) can ding you with deductions.

That’s it for our latest fantasy soccer advice article for beginners, so with that said, we hope you keep these tips in mind once you’re ready to try your luck in the MLS fantasy soccer scene.