Monday, July 31, 2017

Does the Bullpen Matter in DFS?

Everyone knows the key to winning a Draftkings fantasy baseball tournament or a FanDuel fantasy baseball tournament, you need to stack a few hitters against an exploitable pitching matchup. What this daily fantasy baseball strategy entails is focusing in on a pitcher who is in an unfavorable matchup against a hot hitting team in a hitter’s ballpark. All of this fantasy baseball analysis is centered around the starting pitcher (his pitches, his splits, his hot/cold streak, etc.) and rightfully so. This makes a great deal of sense considering the entire game is run through the two starting pitchers in the game but there may be a little more to it then you think.  The reason is the following.

When you stack a team against a starting pitcher you are hoping that pitcher is fully exploitable hoping that is start is short lived.  You expect your stack to be able to light up the starting pitcher and get on him early in the game. But the fact of the matter is, if this happens then the pitcher that you did all of your fantasy baseball research on is going to be subbed out within the first half of the game (five innings or less preferably) and then what? Every reason you picked those hitters for were based on the matchup with the starting pitcher, not whatever middle reliever that comes out of the bullpen. So are you realistically expected to do research on the bullpen pitchers as well just in case your plan goes just as you planned. Realistically, no.

There are a couple reasons why, but we are going to focus on two. Most of the time, bullpen pitchers have a limited pitching arsenal usually consisting of a fastball and an offspeed pitch or two. So, it’s not like these pitchers are going to be tricking your hitters by keeping them off balance because of their deep pitching arsenal. Secondly, if your hitters were the reason that the starting pitcher got subbed out in the first place then there's not much more research you need to do. When a player gets a couple of hits in the first half of the game, it doesn’t matter who's pitching to them because regardless the ball is going to look like a beach ball coming out of the pitcher’s hand.

So at the end of the day, spend your research time on the starting pitcher because that is where the money is really at.